Merced County population still growing, even as thousands leave California

Despite an ongoing exodus of residents leaving the Golden State, Merced County’s population not only continues to expand — it remains one of California’s top growing populations.

Merced County was among the top five counties to see the biggest population increases in California last year, according to a California Department of Finance report.

The report found Merced County’s population grew by roughly .9% between Jan. 1, 2021 and Jan. 1 this year — meaning it went from 281,874 to 284,338 residents.

Merced County followed behind Yolo County (1.8% population growth), San Benito County (1.1%) and Modoc County (1%). Tuolumne County also had 0.9%.

According to the report, California remained the most populous state in the country, despite the population dipping by more than 117,500, or 0.3%, to less than 39.2 million.

Upward trajectory over past few years

The trend for Merced County’s population growth, compared to California’s population loss, isn’t new.

The Department of Finance reported in December 2020 that Merced County came in at number five for the biggest population increase out of the state’s 58 counties.

That year, Merced County’s population grew by 1.13% while California averaged just 0.5% growth, a trickle compared to the booming population growth in previous years.

The pattern has continued since 2016, when Merced County first started seeing bigger population increases than California’s coastal counties.

Local experts pin that, in part, on astronomically high home prices in places like the San Francisco Bay Area continuing to rise, pricing many out of the housing market.

Rather than leave the state, residents in the most expensive parts of California are coming here, where the median home price is $410,000, according Realtor.com.

“We’ve gone up quite a bit, but it’s so much more affordable here than the rest of the state,” said Atwater-based Realtor Andy Krotik. “It’s not even close.”

Increasing crime rates in larger urban centers, too, are a big factor for families who are looking at other parts California to live, Krotik said.

“People don’t want to be in big cities because of the crazy crime,” Krotik said. “We have our issues here, but it’s not the kind of crime you see in big cities.”

Merced County’s unincorporated communities saw the biggest influx of new residents in 2021 – 90,883 to be exact, up from 89,214 in January 2021, a 1.9% increase, according to the report.

The cities of Merced and Los Banos both saw population increases of 1%, totaling 89,058 and 46,639 respectively. Livingston followed, increasing 0.5% to 14,430, according to the report.

Merced County cities which saw population losses included Dos Palos (-2.1%), Gustine (-1.9%) and Atwater (-1.1%).

In raw numbers, that means the population of Dos Palos shrank from 5,835 to 5,715, while Gustine saw a contraction from 6,098 to 5,981, and Atwater’s population declined from 32,019 to 31,652.

Other factors behind state’s shrinking population

The report found while population growth remained strong in the interior counties of the Central Valley and the Inland Empire, most counties saw declines.

That included every coastal county except San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz (due in part to college students returning to campus).

The state’s steadily declining population is blamed on fewer residents having children, more elderly residents passing away and fewer people moving to California.

That’s on top of COVID-19-related deaths, a stricter national immigration policy and an increase of people leaving the state for other parts of the country, according to a Department of Finance press release.

Other counties near Merced also saw population increases last year. Madera County grew 0.6% from 156,385 to 157,396, while San Benito County saw an increase of 1.1% from 64,769 to 65,479. Fresno County, too, increased by 0.2% from 1,009,231 to 1,011,273.

Not every county neighboring Merced saw population rises. Santa Clara County shrank by 0.7% from more than 1.9 million to about 1.8 million, according to the report, while Stanislaus County saw a decrease by 0.4% from 551,737 to 549,466.

Rural Mariposa County to the east also saw population declines from 17,066 to 17,045, a decrease of 0.1%.

Population changes among the state’s 10 largest cities were:

• Los Angeles: A decrease of 33,785 residents, or 0.9%, to 3,819,538.
• San Diego: An increase of 2,958 residents, or 0.2%, to 1,374,790.
• San Jose: A decrease of 14,662 residents, or 1.5%, to 976,482.
• San Francisco: A decrease of 6,721 residents, or 0.8%, to 842,754.
• Fresno: An increase of 940 residents, or 0.2%, to 543,660.
• Sacramento: A decrease of 285 residents, or 0.1%, to 518,037.
• Long Beach: An increase of 925 residents, or 0.2%, to 460,682.
• Oakland: A decrease of 5,636 residents, or 1.3%, to 424,464.
• Bakersfield: An increase of 2,736 residents, or 0.7%, to 408,865.
• Anaheim: A decrease of 3,359 residents, or 1.0%, to 341,245.

This story was originally published May 6, 2022 at 5:00 AM.