These California counties will see the greatest increase in wildfire risk, new analysis says

California’s wine country and two Sacramento Valley counties will see a dramatic increase in wildfire risk over the next three decades, according to a new report from a climate-change think tank.

On Monday, the New York-based First Street Foundation released its national ”Fueling the Flames” analysis that uses climate, weather and property data to project the likelihood of wildfires burning properties over the next 30 years.

First Street put Sonoma and Napa counties — devastated in recent years by wildfires — on the top of its list of California counties that will see an increased risk of properties catching fire by 2052. Marin County, also in the North Bay, ranked No. 3.

To the east in the Sacramento Valley, Yolo County came just behind at No. 4. Colusa County ranked No. 7. Plumas County, a three-hour drive northeast of Sacramento, ranked No. 9 on First Street’s 30-year threat list.

First Street said it based its calculations on projected increases in temperatures, drought conditions, shifting humidity patterns and fire-fuel densities.

Fires raged through the wine country in 2017, torching portions of Santa Rosa and other cities. Two years later, the Kincade Fire burned through 77,758 acres of Sonoma County.

Populated areas of Yolo and Colusa counties have largely been spared by wildfires in recent years, due to being surrounded by flat, irrigated agricultural land. However, the sparsely populated western portions of those counties on California’s Coast Range share similar terrain and fire-risk to the North Bay.

Large swaths of heavily forested Plumas County burned last summer.

Statewide, First Street estimates that 4.6 million California properties currently have at least some risk of burning in a wildfire. By 2053, at least 5.5 million properties will be at risk, according to the report.

This story was originally published May 16, 2022 at 12:53 PM with the headline "These California counties will see the greatest increase in wildfire risk, new analysis says."