California COVID-19 surge, the flu and vaccine equity: What to know this winter

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is warning of a winter COVID-19 surge: “It’s coming back in force,” he said last week at an event in Kings County.

But other forces are at work, too — both sinister and life saving.

“This disease is not taking the winter off. It’s coming back in force, and you’re seeing that all across this country,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said last week during the event, promoting COVID-19 booster shots. “We should anticipate that we are going to see an increase in cases.”

What will the winter surge bring?

According to Dr. Christian Sandrock, who has worked with COVID patients at UC Davis Health, it’s hard to know what the winter season will bring and how bad the surge in cases will be in California.

But he said he thinks we will see a rise in coronavirus infections, most likely in the second week of December through to January.

“I think with vaccinations and boosters, I’m hopeful that, you know, our surge won’t be as bad as it was in the early portion of 2021,” he said.

The increase in cases since summer 2021 has been fueled by the highly contagious delta variant, especially among the unvaccinated population.

Where is California compared to last year?

Around this time last year, California was reporting lab-confirmed cases at an all-time high of 13,000 on Nov. 20, 2020, bringing total cases in the state to 1.07 million. By the 22nd, the seven-day average was about 15,000.

Sandrock said that the increase in infections was likely due to people gathering for the holidays and because the vaccine wasn’t available yet.

“We had an unvaccinated population so it accelerated more,” he said.

As of Nov. 21, 2021, there is a daily average of more than 4,000 cases with 10.8 new cases per 100,000.

The majority of cases are among unvaccinated individuals.

Currently, 67% of people over 5 years of age are fully vaccinated in the state.

Rise in other viruses

Sandrock added that the state will likely see a rise in respiratory viruses, such as influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). RSV cases previously spiked in the summer due to relaxed COVID-19 safety measures.

According to the CDC’s Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report, seasonal influenza activity is low nationally, however, the number of flu viruses detected by clinical and public health labs has risen.

Currently, about 162.5 million doses of the flu vaccine have been administered in the country and only 0.7% of specimens tested are positive for influenza.

“Influenza and RSV don’t lead to the hospitalization and death rates that we see with COVID and the unvaccinated,” said Sandrock. “Not even close.”

Vaccine availability

Health officials are urging people to get vaccinated to offset the potential winter surge of COVID-19, The Bee reported.

But this requires an equitable vaccine distribution across California, according to Dr. Manuel Pastor, the head of University of Southern California’s Equity Research Institute.

“You could see that the COVID case, hospitalization and death rate is lower than last year but beneath, the disparities are larger,” said Pastor who is a former member of Newsom’s COVID Recovery Task Force.

According to Sacramento County’s vaccine dashboard, Asian Americans and native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander people have the highest percentage of being partially vaccinated, with 79% and 76%, respectively. Only 52% of white, 46% of Hispanic and 45% of Black individuals are at least partially vaccinated.

Pastor said that he questions whether the booster campaign will effectively reach people, too.

“We’re going to see a lot of that disparity because access to health care, access to vaccines is certainly much easier and much more readily available in communities of wealth,” Sandrock said, adding that the roll out of the vaccine for 5 to 11-year-old children could worsen equity issues.

“I think we need far more outreach and education to communities that are not taking up a shot,” Pastor said. This includes incorporating schools, he said, because parents have a lot of trust in schools.

He added that employers need to provide more support for employees who need to take a day or two off after getting the vaccine.

“If you’re a low wage worker, it’s very difficult to lose a day,” Pastor said. If employers can’t cover their time off, he said he thinks the state should find a way to cover income loss.

Reporter Sophia Bollag contributed reporting.

This story was originally published November 23, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "California COVID-19 surge, the flu and vaccine equity: What to know this winter."